University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

What the survey measures

The Surveys of Consumers, run by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan, ask Americans how they feel about their finances and the economy. The best-known output is the Index of Consumer Sentiment, a single number that summarises whether consumers are feeling better or worse off. The survey has run for decades and is one of the longest-standing measures of household confidence.

Sentiment matters to markets because consumer spending is the largest part of the economy, and how people feel can influence how much they spend, borrow and save, though the link is far from exact.

Who publishes it and when

The survey is conducted monthly. Each month produces two releases:

• A preliminary reading, published around the middle of the month and based on interviews conducted during the first part of the survey period.
• A final reading, published near the end of the month and based on the full set of interviews. The final release is published at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.

Both are usually released on a Friday. Release dates, interview periods and the latest results are on the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers site.

How the index is built

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is calculated from answers to five questions:

1. Whether the household is better or worse off financially than a year ago.
2. Whether it expects to be better or worse off a year from now.
3. Whether business conditions in the country will be good or bad over the next twelve months.
4. Whether the country will see good times or widespread unemployment over the next five years or so.
5. Whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items.

For each question, the survey takes the share of favourable answers minus the share of unfavourable answers and adds 100. The five scores are combined and scaled so that the index equals 100 in its 1966 base period.

Two sub-indexes are also published:

• Current Economic Conditions, built from the questions about present finances and buying conditions.
• Consumer Expectations, built from the forward-looking questions.

Inflation expectations

The survey also asks consumers what they expect inflation to be over the next year and over the next five to ten years (often called long-run expectations). These figures can draw more market attention than the sentiment index itself. The Federal Reserve watches inflation expectations closely, because expectations that drift upward can, in theory, feed into wage and price setting.

Survey measures of expectations have well-known limits. Consumers’ answers are strongly influenced by recent prices of everyday items such as gasoline and groceries, and they can shift with news coverage. They are one input among several, alongside market-based measures and professional forecasts.

How markets commonly react

The sentiment index usually moves markets modestly. Larger reactions are more likely when the inflation expectations figures surprise, especially the long-run measure, because they bear on how the Fed might view the inflation outlook. A rise in expectations is commonly read as a reason for higher Treasury yields; a fall, the reverse. The preliminary release tends to get more attention than the final, because it is the first look at the month. None of this is a dependable pattern.

Sentiment versus spending

A frequent puzzle is that consumers can report feeling gloomy while continuing to spend. Sentiment surveys capture attitudes, which can be shaped by prices, politics and headlines, while spending is driven largely by income, jobs and wealth. For actual spending, see retail sales and the PCE report.

Common misreadings

• Confusing it with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. That is a separate survey with a different method and a different release schedule.
• Treating preliminary and final as different months. Both describe the same month; the final adds the remaining interviews.
• Reading sentiment as a spending forecast. The relationship is loose.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between the preliminary and final readings?

The preliminary reading is based on interviews from roughly the first half of the survey period; the final reading includes all interviews for the month. They can differ.

What time is the Michigan sentiment index released?

The final reading is published at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. Both readings usually come out on Fridays; upcoming dates are listed on this page.

Why do markets care about Michigan’s inflation expectations?

Because expectations can influence how people set wages and prices, and the Federal Reserve watches them for signs that inflation could become entrenched.

Is this the same as consumer confidence?

No. “Consumer confidence” usually refers to the Conference Board’s separate index. The Michigan survey produces the Index of Consumer Sentiment.

Explainer updated November 13, 2026.