Advance Monthly Retail Trade (Retail Sales)

What the report measures

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade report, usually just called retail sales, estimates the dollar value of sales at U.S. retailers and food services businesses, such as restaurants and bars, during the previous month. Because consumer spending makes up the largest share of the U.S. economy, it is one of the earliest and most closely watched signals of how households are spending.

It covers sales at car dealers, gas stations, grocery stores, department stores, online and other nonstore retailers, building materials stores, restaurants and more. It does not cover most services, such as rent, medical care, travel or utilities, which is an important limitation discussed below.

Who publishes it and when

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the advance report monthly at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, typically around the middle of the month after the month it covers. That makes it one of the first major reports on any given month. The release and supporting tables are on the Census Bureau retail trade page.

The word “advance” matters. The estimate comes from a subsample of the full retail survey, drawn from roughly 4,800 retail and food services firms, and it is replaced by fuller estimates later.

The numbers traders watch

• Headline retail and food services sales, month over month. The total change from the previous month, seasonally adjusted and adjusted for holiday and trading-day differences.
• Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts. Car sales are large and lumpy, so removing them gives a steadier read.
• Sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline. Gas station sales swing with fuel prices, so this measure strips out both of the most volatile pieces.
• Category detail, such as nonstore retailers, restaurants and bars, and building materials, which shows where spending is shifting.
• Revisions to the prior month, which can change the story as much as the new month.

Some analysts construct their own “core” measures from the categories, excluding further volatile items, to estimate how retail spending will feed into the consumer spending component of GDP.

Not adjusted for inflation

Retail sales are reported in current dollars. The Census Bureau adjusts them for seasonal patterns and calendar effects but not for price changes. A month of rising sales can reflect higher prices rather than people buying more. When inflation is running fast, a solid headline can hide flat or falling volumes. Comparing the report with goods prices in the CPI helps separate the two.

Statistical noise

Each estimate comes with a 90 percent confidence interval, and the release flags changes where that interval includes zero. In plain terms, a small reported rise or fall may not be statistically distinguishable from no change at all. Month-to-month moves of a few tenths of a percent should be read with that in mind.

Revisions

The advance estimate for a month is revised in the next month’s release, and again after that as the full survey sample comes in. The Census Bureau also conducts an annual revision that updates seasonal factors and benchmarks the monthly series to annual survey results, which can change several years of history.

How markets commonly react

A strong report is commonly read as evidence that consumers are healthy, which can support the shares of retailers and consumer companies. But the same strength can raise expectations of higher interest rates, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar up and weighing on the broader stock market. A weak report can be read as a growth worry or as a reason to expect easier Federal Reserve policy. Which reading dominates depends on what the market is most concerned about at the time, so the reaction is not dependable.

Common misreadings

• Treating retail sales as total consumer spending. It covers mostly goods and restaurants. Services spending appears in the monthly PCE report.
• Ignoring inflation. Higher dollar sales are not the same as more goods sold.
• Overreacting to small changes. Many monthly moves fall within the margin of error.
• Missing the revision. A big upward or downward change to the prior month can offset the new number.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the retail sales report released?

At 8:30 AM Eastern Time, usually around the middle of the month following the month it covers.

Is retail sales adjusted for inflation?

No. The figures are adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes.

What does “retail sales ex autos” mean?

Total retail and food services sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers. It removes a large and volatile category to show the underlying trend.

Why is it called the “advance” report?

Because it is an early estimate based on a subsample of retailers. It is revised in later months as more complete data arrive.

Explainer updated November 13, 2026.