Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Price Index)

What the PCE report is

“The PCE report” is shorthand for the monthly Personal Income and Outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). It contains three kinds of information:

• Income: personal income and disposable personal income (income after taxes).
• Spending: personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the dollar value of what households and the nonprofits that serve them spend on goods and services.
• Prices: the PCE price index and the PCE price index excluding food and energy, usually called core PCE.

It also reports the personal saving rate, the share of disposable income that is not spent.

Most market attention goes to the price indexes, because the Federal Reserve defines its inflation goal in terms of them.

Who publishes it and when

BEA publishes Personal Income and Outlays monthly, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, toward the end of the month after the month it covers. It typically comes out a couple of weeks after the CPI and PPI, and in some months it shares a release day with a GDP estimate. Release details are on BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays page.

Why the Fed prefers PCE

The Federal Open Market Committee’s long-run strategy statement says inflation of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the PCE price index, is most consistent with its mandate. That makes PCE the official yardstick for the inflation side of Fed policy, even though CPI gets more public attention.

BEA groups the differences between the two indexes into a few categories:

• Formula. The PCE price index uses a Fisher-Ideal formula that adjusts as people switch between goods when relative prices change. CPI uses a modified Laspeyres formula based on a fixed basket.
• Weights. The two give different relative importance to the same items, partly because they draw on different sources of spending data.
• Scope. PCE includes spending made on behalf of households, such as the portion of medical care paid by employers and government programs. CPI covers only out-of-pocket spending by urban households.
• Other effects, including seasonal adjustment and price differences.

Because of these differences, PCE inflation and CPI inflation do not move in lockstep, and the gap between them changes over time.

The numbers traders watch

• Core PCE, month over month. The number most closely compared with forecasts.
• Core PCE and headline PCE, year over year. The figures compared with the Fed’s 2 percent goal.
• Real consumer spending. Spending adjusted for inflation, a read on the health of the consumer, who accounts for the largest share of the economy.
• Personal income and the saving rate. Context for whether spending is backed by income or by drawing down savings.

Why the release often surprises less

By the time the PCE report arrives, much of the price data is already known. BEA derives most PCE price indexes from BLS consumer and producer price indexes, so forecasters can estimate core PCE quite closely once those reports are out. As a result, the PCE release often produces a smaller market reaction than CPI. The surprise, when there is one, is more likely to come from spending, income or revisions to prior months.

How markets commonly react

A firmer-than-expected core PCE is commonly read as supporting higher interest rates for longer, which tends to lift Treasury yields and the dollar and weigh on stocks; a softer number is read the other way. Strong real spending can be read as good news (a healthy economy) or bad news (inflation risk) depending on the backdrop. These reactions are habits of interpretation, not dependable patterns.

Revisions

PCE figures are revised. Each monthly release updates prior months as more complete source data arrive, and BEA periodically conducts broader updates of the national accounts that can change the history of the series. A month that looked hot or cool on release day can look different afterward.

Common misreadings

• Expecting PCE and CPI to match. They measure different things in different ways.
• Confusing PCE spending with the PCE price index. One is a dollar value of spending; the other is an inflation measure.
• Ignoring revisions. The revision to the previous month can matter as much as the new month.

For a side-by-side comparison, see CPI, PPI and PCE compared.

Frequently asked questions

When does the PCE report come out?

Monthly at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, usually near the end of the month following the month it covers. Upcoming dates are listed on this page.

Why does the Fed use PCE instead of CPI?

Its long-run strategy statement defines the 2 percent inflation goal using the PCE price index. PCE covers a broader range of spending and its formula reflects how consumers substitute between goods.

What is core PCE?

The PCE price index excluding food and energy. Removing those volatile categories gives a steadier read on underlying inflation.

Is PCE usually higher or lower than CPI?

There is no fixed relationship. The formula, weight and scope differences mean the two can diverge, and the size of the gap changes over time, so each needs to be compared with its own forecast and history.

Explainer updated November 13, 2026.