ISM Manufacturing PMI

What the ISM Manufacturing PMI is

The Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives at U.S. manufacturers. It asks whether conditions in their business improved, worsened or stayed the same compared with the previous month. Because it is fast, simple and arrives on the first business day of the month, it is one of the earliest reads on the economy for any given month.

ISM is a private, nonprofit professional association, not a government agency. Its survey panel is chosen to reflect each manufacturing industry’s contribution to GDP, and respondents report only on their U.S. operations. The report is part of what was long known as the ISM Report On Business.

Who publishes it and when

ISM releases the Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on the first business day of each month, covering the previous month. The January report is the exception and comes out on the second business day. When the New York Stock Exchange is closed, the date shifts. Reports are posted on ISM’s PMI reports page.

How the index works

Diffusion indexes

Each ISM sub-index is a diffusion index. It equals the percentage of respondents reporting an increase plus half the percentage reporting no change. A reading of 50 means as many respondents saw improvement as saw deterioration. Above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

A diffusion index measures how widespread a change is, not how large it is. A reading of 55 says more firms are growing than shrinking, but it does not say by how much output rose.

The five components

The headline PMI is an equally weighted average of five sub-indexes:

• New Orders
• Production
• Employment
• Supplier Deliveries
• Inventories

Supplier Deliveries works in reverse: a higher reading means deliveries are slower, which usually reflects stronger demand or supply-chain strain.

Other indexes in the report

The report also publishes indexes that are not part of the headline, including Prices (what manufacturers pay for inputs), Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports and Customers’ Inventories. The Prices index gets particular attention as an early signal of cost pressure.

ISM seasonally adjusts the PMI and several of its components and reviews the adjustment factors each year.

The 50 line and the wider economy

A PMI below 50 means manufacturing activity is contracting by ISM’s measure, but it does not necessarily mean the whole economy is shrinking. Manufacturing is a relatively small share of U.S. output, and ISM itself publishes a lower threshold above which the PMI, sustained over time, has generally been consistent with overall economic expansion. ISM updates that threshold periodically.

The numbers traders watch

• The headline PMI versus forecasts, and whether it is above or below 50.
• New Orders, often treated as the most forward-looking component.
• Prices, for inflation signals.
• Employment, read alongside the jobs report due later that week or the next.
• Respondent comments, quoted anonymously by industry, which give colour on what firms are experiencing.

How markets commonly react

A stronger-than-expected PMI is commonly read as a sign of economic momentum, which can support cyclical stocks and push Treasury yields higher. A jump in the Prices index can be read as an inflation warning. A weak reading can stoke growth worries or raise expectations of easier Federal Reserve policy. Reactions are usually moderate and depend on the backdrop; they are not dependable.

Common misreadings

• Treating 50 as a recession line for the economy. It is the dividing line for manufacturing activity, not the whole economy.
• Reading the index as a measure of output growth. It measures breadth, not magnitude.
• Confusing ISM with S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI. S&P Global publishes a separate U.S. manufacturing PMI with a different panel and method, usually released the same day.

For the services side of the economy, see the ISM Services PMI.

Frequently asked questions

When is the ISM Manufacturing PMI released?

At 10:00 AM Eastern Time on the first business day of the month, except in January, when it comes out on the second business day.

What does a PMI above 50 mean?

That more purchasing managers reported improving conditions than worsening ones, which ISM interprets as manufacturing expansion.

What are the components of the ISM Manufacturing PMI?

New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories, weighted equally.

Is the ISM PMI the same as the S&P Global PMI?

No. They are separate surveys from different organisations and can give different readings in the same month.

Explainer updated November 13, 2026.