FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision

What the FOMC decides

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the part of the Federal Reserve that sets monetary policy. Its main tool is the target range for the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight. Changes in that target ripple out to other short-term rates, and through expectations to mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, the dollar and asset prices generally.

The committee also makes decisions about the Fed’s balance sheet, such as how quickly it lets its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities shrink or whether to buy more.

Who votes

The FOMC has twelve voting members:

• the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, including the Chair;
• the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York;
• four of the other eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

The non-voting presidents attend the meetings and take part in the discussion.

When it happens

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year, most of them over two days. The schedule is published well in advance on the Fed’s FOMC calendar page, and the committee can also meet unscheduled if conditions require it.

On the final day of a scheduled meeting:

• 2:00 PM Eastern Time: the policy statement is released, along with an implementation note describing the technical settings for the Fed’s tools.
• 2:30 PM Eastern Time: the Chair holds a press conference.

At four of the eight meetings each year, the statement is accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Those meetings are marked on the Fed’s calendar.

What traders read

The statement

The statement announces the decision and gives the committee’s brief assessment of the economy. Traders compare it line by line with the previous statement, because small wording changes can signal a shift in thinking. The vote is listed at the end, including any dissents, which show how divided the committee is.

The Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot

At SEP meetings, each participant (voters and non-voters alike) submits projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, for the current year, the next few years and the longer run. The Fed publishes the median, central tendency and range of those projections.

The best-known part is the dot plot: a chart where each anonymous participant’s view of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each year is shown as a dot. It is widely used to gauge the expected path of rates, but it is a set of individual views, not a committee decision or a promise. The dots change as the outlook changes, and participants do not all vote.

The press conference

The Chair’s press conference often moves markets as much as the decision itself. Answers about the outlook, the balance of risks and the conditions for future moves can confirm or undercut how markets read the statement.

How markets commonly react

The decision itself is usually well anticipated, because futures markets price the probability of each outcome in advance. The reaction therefore depends on the surprise relative to expectations, which can come from the decision, the statement wording, the dots or the press conference. A more hawkish message than expected (leaning toward tighter policy) is commonly said to lift Treasury yields and the dollar and to weigh on stocks; a more dovish one (leaning toward easier policy), the reverse.

Fed days are notorious for whipsaw: an initial move at 2:00 PM is sometimes reversed during the press conference, and the “real” reaction may not settle until the following day. A rate cut can even be read negatively if it signals that the Fed is worried about the economy. None of these patterns is dependable.

For a walkthrough of the full day, see Fed meeting day explained.

Common misreadings

• Treating the dot plot as a forecast of what will happen. It is a snapshot of individual views that changes meeting to meeting.
• Assuming a rate cut is always good for stocks. The reason for the cut matters.
• Ignoring the minutes. The detailed record of the discussion comes three weeks later; see FOMC minutes.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Fed announcement?

The statement is released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on the final day of the meeting, and the Chair’s press conference begins at 2:30 PM.

How many times a year does the Fed meet?

The FOMC holds eight scheduled meetings a year and can meet between them if needed.

What is the dot plot?

A chart in the Summary of Economic Projections showing each participant’s anonymous view of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer run. It is published at four meetings a year.

Who votes on interest rates?

Twelve members: the seven Fed governors, the president of the New York Fed and four other Reserve Bank presidents on a rotating basis.

Explainer updated November 13, 2026.